Just like after the Columbine shootings, the Arizona shooting where Gabby Giffords was critically shot, 8 others killed, and 9 wounded, the Virginia Tech massacre, and the Trayvon Martin shooting, there will be lots of bloviating by pundits on all sides of the gun argument. Politicos will be looking for any reason to advance their personal cause based on the personal circumstances/ideology/politics/mental state of the shooter, all trying to gain some perceived advantage over their political opponents. The fund-raising has already commenced.

My thoughts are beyond those partisan, and mostly irrelevant arguments. I’m focused on what’s happened to the United States as a country. Gun massacres are becoming commonplace. We have jingoistic politicians who have idiotically accused a loyal American with a “funny name” of being some kind of sleeper agent for the Muslim Brotherhood. We stand helplessly by as these politicians, who have signed pledges to outside lobbying groups, hold the nation hostage over ideological hot-button issues on taxes, religious beliefs, and gun politics, all distorted into a weird tapestry of odd beliefs based on myths or outright falsehood. The NRA has been so effective at controlling politicians over gun rights that we, as a nation, cannot stop gun traffic across our own borders, causing the deaths of tens of thousands of people. At the same time, those very politicians who have stripped law enforcement of the tools they need to stop the tragic violence, hold the Attorney General of the United States in contempt of Congress for purely political theatre, all centered around a twisted interpretation of the second amendment. And fund-raising.

What the hell has happened to us? Are we this ignorant/negligent that we’ve allowed our country to be dominated by radicals who fight for political power by trying to scare us into a state of constant panic, creating a Darwinian society where we actually believe that we must arm ourselves against other armed people who have scared themselves to the point that they actually believe they need to murder perfect strangers? Every politician who has buckled to the NRA’s checkbook should be ashamed of themselves. Better than that, they should all resign.

It’s time for sane adults to insist that we elect sane adults who will act like sane adults and implement sane policy. There is no reason for us to be the most violent nation on earth (except for maybe Somalia), where gun violence is the norm. There is no reason for us to spend more on guns and the military than all other industrialized countries combined.

This will only happen, though, like every other societal shift, when it comes from the people: you and me ejecting every politician who pledges loyalty to lobbyists over the good of our society as a whole. Until we do this, the violence and insanity will only get worse.

Originally published on The Huffington Post.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

This blog spent most of 2010 talking about the blowout and subsequent spill, trying to make sense out of the nonsense coming out of BP and much of the media.  Hopefully we helped change the conversation by explaining the mechanics and politics about what was going on.  BP was successful, with the help of the US government, in getting the 24/7 news coverage shut down in July of 2010 when they undertook a dangerous shut-in procedure that exceeded the design capacity of several wellhead components.  Since then, the President’s Oil Spill Commission did a study of the accident, issuing their report, and the Joint Investigation between the Coast Guard and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (the old MMS) completed an intensive investigation.

The fault for the blowout was clearly BP’s since they were the operator of record of the Macondo well.  Cultural issues, hubris, and complacency, combined with poor design and poor decision making all collided into the conflagration that was the blowout.  Inexperienced government officials, BP’s obfuscation, and politicians’ desire to get the blowing out off the television made matters worse.  Since then, the government has continued to ignore the extent of the damage, and Americans are either ignorant or uninterested about where their gasoline comes from.  The beat goes on.

Last week, former members of the Spill Commission issued a follow up report about government and industry actions since their initial report was issued.  Congress got the lowest grade, D, for obvious reasons.  Agencies and industry were also graded in various areas.  No one got an A.  The most infuriating fact that the report pointed out was something I’ve been watching in the industry: The Center for Offshore Safety, an independent source for research and work towards better operational safety in offshore drilling.  The model was the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations in the nuclear power industry.  Of course, the industry did not support the Center’s formation, but finally complied with the recommendation.  What makes the whole thing silly, though, is that it was formed under the authority of the American Petroleum Institute or API.  The API, which used to be a standards setting organization, has morphed into the largest lobbying firm for the industry.  So.  The Center for Offshore Safety is being run by an organization that opposes improving regulation of offshore safety.

We have a long way to go in improving offshore safety.  Equipment, procedures, and people must all be upgraded to prevent another Macondo.  With a deadlocked Congress, dysfunctional regulators, and uncooperative industry, I fear it will take another Macondo before we actually do something.

Originally published on The Huffington Post.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

The affidavit filed by the FBI supporting the arrest of Mix contained explosive details about BP’s early knowledge of the well’s flow rate, and that the rate was far more than it was admitting at the time, or ever has, for that matter. You’ll recall that in the early days of the blowout, BP downplayed the amount of oil flowing into the Gulf, even telling the Coast Guard at one point that the well wasn’t flowing at all. When it became obvious that this assertion simply wasn’t true, BP slowly raised the estimate to 5,000 barrels per day, even when industry experts estimated the flow to be far higher. BP’s liability and fines for polluting the water, of course, are based on how much oil was spilled.

The FBI affidavit alleged that the flow rate estimates transmitted in messages that Mix later destroyed were far above BP’s public assertions. For instance, on April 21, 2010, the day after the blowout, Mix estimated the flow rate to be from 64,000 to 138,000 barrels per day. The next day, BP told the Coast Guard the flow rate was zero. According to the document filed today, Mix had done a number of estimates that he communicated to his bosses and to an outside contractor, even estimating on April 29, 2010 a flow rate possibly as high as 146,000 barrels per day.

A key point to note was Mix’s work on the Top Kill. Even though BP publicly stated that they gave the procedure a success probability of 60 to 70 percent, internal discussions alleged in this affidavit were, that if the well flow was over 15,000 barrels per day, the procedure wouldn’t be successful. With Mix’s calculations showing as much as 146,000 barrels per day, it appears that BP attempted the procedure when they knew it would not work, sticking to the 5,000 barrel per day estimate and telling the public that all was “going according to plan”.

I believe that this revelation today could be the beginning of a cascade of disclosures about what BP executives really knew in the days immediately after the blowout. Did they really know the well was flowing far more than they were saying? Did they know the Top Kill wouldn’t work? If these allegations by Justice are true, this story is just beginning.

Originally published on The Huffington Post.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

43 years after his assassination, Martin Luther King, Jr.’s memorial was finally dedicated yesterday. Delayed from its original August dedication date by stubborn tropical storm Irene that wreaked havoc all the way up the eastern seaboard, yesterdays’s ceremony was a pared down version, yet even more important in light of Occupy Wall Street, which has sprung up in the last month.

Coverage of the dedication has rekindled my own memories of the civil rights movement as a child growing up in segregated Fort Worth, Texas. I was fortunately raised by parents who taught respect for all people regardless of race or religion, but was surrounded in my hometown by both overt and subtle racism. I went to segregated schools until high school; I remember Men, Ladies, and Negro restrooms at the local department store. I didn’t even know any African Americans until my school was integrated in 1967, when I suddenly went from starting forward on the basketball team to second string bench. I learned much during that period of time, but mostly that the black guys on my team were just like me, except they played basketball a hell of a lot better than me. But Lynn Washington, Otha Woodard, and others taught me how to really play ball, and I still carry some scars resulting from under-the-basket scuffles as I learned a more aggressive style of b-ball. Those years were a great experience for me, though I got much less actual game time for the rest of my short basketball career after we integrated. My fear of integration and the civil rights movement faded away as I gained maturity and perspectives of life that were not my own. I began to understand the importance of equality for all, not just those who looked like me.

Equality, though, does not concern only race and ethnic origin, however. Closely tied to racial equality is also social equality. Social justice and equality have been the common threads that have run through our culture, from our founding documents through history to today. In recent years, though, that concept has been overwhelmed by the hijacking of our political system by the influence of huge money. This influence, though, it just the latest assault on elections and democracy. Before the Supreme’s ruling on Citizens United that opened the floodgates to foreign and corporate money in elections, efforts over decades to reduce the ability of poor people and minorities to vote were common. Poll taxes, limited access to polling places, and even scarce voting machines have all been tactics to keep democratic-leaning voters away from the polls.

The financial crisis that has put millions out of work, as well as the backlash against the GOP’s war on labor unions and middle class workers, has generated a new civil rights movement, called Occupy Wall Street. It was only a matter of time that a movement like this would finally build, as joblessness has continued for a third year, and those who do have jobs have lost benefits and had their wages cut, stagnating the incomes of an entire class of Americans. Putting it in simple terms, regular folks now have virtually no voice in the current political system, and the frustration has finally boiled over. Heavy money influence in Washington has kept elected representatives from doing their jobs, instead just kicking the can down the road rather than making tough decisions to help turn the economy around and reforming our financial system to keep the same thing from happening again.

Republicans, in an all out effort to keep President Obama from earning a second term, have executed a blatant 24/7 effort to keep the economy floundering, scuttling every administration legislative effort. While the Repubs have introduced no legislation to help the economy, they have passed anti-abortion legislation 7 times in the House just this year. Dems, of course, have run for the exits, equivocating and focusing on their own donors, including those from Wall Street, watering down measures being considered that could help. The result? Our government has ground to a halt. Even procedural votes are victims of filibusters and death by amendment. The gridlock caused by party politics and corruption has overtaken all the other inefficiencies in our political system, which were already plenty. What’s changed, though, is that those being hurt by the politics and corruption have finally found their voice. Occupy Wall Street has grown from a small group protesting in New York to a worldwide movement with protests on Saturday spreading to over 900 cities. The anger is directed at the financial system, but the real issue is the stagnant global economy, high sustained unemployment, and the lack of response of our elected officials to do something that actually helps.

If Occupy Wall Street continues to grow, it will get to the point that politicians will be forced to address it. However, politicians do what they always do…Lead from the rear.

This article was originally published on The Huffington Post, where you can read the original.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

The loss of life at the Macondo site on April 20, 2010, and the subsequent pollution of the Gulf of Mexico through the summer of 2010 were the result of poor risk management, last‐minute changes to plans, failure to observe and respond to critical indicators, inadequate well control response, and insufficient emergency bridge response training by companies and individuals responsible for drilling at the Macondo well and for the operation of the Deepwater Horizon.

Listed among the causes was failure to detect the gas kick in the first place, risky casing design, multiple simultaneous operations, management changes, poor communication, failure to enforce safety rules and regulations, and complete failure of the blowout preventer systems once the well had blown out. Notably, the report determined that the same on-duty drilling crew that failed to recognize this kick that turned into the blowout had failed to recognize a previous kick on this very same well.

I found the JIT’s report on the blowout’s flow path to be the most interesting and revealing information to date about the condition of the well after it had been killed and was being permanently plugged during the Fall of 2010. They studied 3 possible flow path scenarios:

• Backside blowout, where cement on the outside of the casing failed and the well flowed up the outside of the production casing through the seal assembly, up the riser to the surface.
• Backside blowout up to the 7″ by 9 7/8″ crossover joint and up the annulus or outside of the casing, and up through the casing.
• Blowout up the production casing due to failed cement and float equipment in the production string itself.

The JIT concluded that scenario 3 was the most likely after reviewing very detailed testing data which found important factors:

• Schlumberger (a downhole well measurement company) ran a scanning tool to measure the characteristics of the fluid outside of the 9 7/8 casing, determining that there was no free gas present, eliminating scenario 1, the backside blowout. They then actually perforated the casing to check for presence of hydrocarbons and pressures indicated again that there was no gas present and no flow from the well outside the casing. Subsequent testing showed no erosion of the seal assembly in the casing head at the sea floor, indicating that there had been no flow through it. Backside blowout eliminated.
• To test scenario 2, the JIT relied on the successful positive pressure test performed on the casing string they pressure tested the casing and components, including the crossover joint, indicating that it was holding. Scenario 2 eliminated.
• Scenario 3, which they couldn’t actually test, was determined to be the cause of the blowout. This scenario would have involved contamination of the cement in the shoe track (the bottom section of the production casing) and failure of the 2 float valves at the top of the shoe track. Although we can’t test for it, it’s entirely possible, especially after testimony during the investigation that confirmed that the float equipment malfunctioned, requiring 9 attempts to activate it during the casing cementing operations on April 19th/April 20th. Multiple failures of these components is relatively rare, and since they are always cemented in, it’s impossible to determine actual failure cause. For example, the entire shoe track could have parted from the main casing string allowing flow up the inside of the production string.

Throughout the report, continual reference was made to poor decision making, poor communication within and outside the organization, and short cuts as all contributing factors.
Related to these factors, Halliburton filed suit against last week BP citing the company’s withholding of critical information that could have contributed to the blowout. Halliburton cited the presence of another hydrocarbon bearing zone above the primary productive zone that could have contributed to the blowout that was not disclosed by BP prior to the cement job. Since the JIT has now ruled out a backside blowout, this newly disclosed zone probably didn’t contribute to the disaster, but clearly, BP should have disclosed that zone to Halliburton and requested a cement design that covered it according to best practices and offshore drilling rules.

Once more, responsibility for the Macondo well disaster that killed 11 men and put 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico falls squarely on the shoulders of BP, the operator of record for the well. The big issue here, though, is how we are taking this very detailed information and translating it into badly needed improvements in offshore drilling technology and oversight. In the report the JIT said about regulations:

Although the Panel found no evidence that MMS regulations in effect on April 20, 2010 were a cause of the blowout, the Panel concluded that stronger and more comprehensive federal regulations might have reduced the likelihood of the Macondo blowout. In particular, the Panel found that MMS regulations in place at the time of the blowout could be enhanced in a number of areas, including: cementing procedures and testing; BOP configuration and testing; well integrity testing; and other drilling operations. In addition, the Panel found that there were a number of ways in which the MMS drilling inspections program could be improved.

The industry and BOEMRE continue to nibble around the edges of this important issue, even as the resistance to substantive improvements remains strong and growing. I fear it will take yet another tragedy to force real reform to how we drill the offshore. Maybe next time it will even drive our politicians into developing a real energy policy, but I’m not holding my breath.

Reposted from The Huffington Post, where you can read the original.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

My big concern, though, is, are we prepared for a storm that could disrupt the lives of some 65 million Americans? Can we respond as a society to this kind of threat?

That’s a question many are asking, especially in the wake of the disastrous government response of past hurricanes and other natural disasters, and since the government became a target of political ideologues with the stated goal of dismantling essential government services such as was done to FEMA during the past administration. The US government response during the Katrina disaster was shameful, even as some politicians declared that disaster response was a responsibility of local and state governments, even though those governments were virtually destroyed in the aftermath and couldn’t cope with the scale of the destruction.

During the Obama administration, FEMA has been restored to functionality and even has a director who has actual disaster response experience unlike those who ran the agency during the Bush administration. William Fugate, the current director appointed by President Obama, ran Florida’s emergency response program and began his career as a firefighter and paramedic. The FEMA response to the tragic tornadoes and floods this last spring were a world away from anemic responses prior to him taking office in May 2009. Since Fugate took the helm at FEMA, he has been working diligently to repair and rebuild the tarnished agency.

Which brings us back to the main question: can FEMA along with state and local governments respond to a potential disaster the size of Hurricane Irene? I believe the answer is maybe, since a storm like this that is threatening such a huge area and millions of people is virtually unprecedented. It does appear though, that state agencies and FEMA are cooperating, and emergency teams and supplies have been pre-positioned to move in. Hopefully the damage won’t be as extensive as feared, and the response, run by competent administrators, will be timely and appropriate.

Some politicians, notably extreme conservatives, oppose any government intervention. Ron Paul today railed against FEMA and remarkably compared today’s response capability to that of Galveston’s after the 1900 storm that destroyed much of that city. During his diatribe before television cameras in New Hampshire today, Paul declared,

“We should be like 1900; we should be like 1940, 1950, 1960. I live on the Gulf Coast; we deal with hurricanes all the time. Galveston is in my district.”There’s no magic about FEMA. They’re a great contribution to deficit financing and quite frankly they don’t have a penny in the bank. We should be coordinated but coordinated voluntarily with the states. A state can decide. We don’t need somebody in Washington.”

In making his statement, Paul conveniently left out the tiny detail that a documented 6,000 people died in the Galveston storm in 1900 and approximately another 2,000 disappeared off the face of the earth, probably swept out to sea. He also ignored the fact that during natural disasters, local governments are often crippled and state governments stretched beyond their capability to take control. The critical omission from his assertion was when he said that Galveston built the seawall (implying all by itself) when a good portion of the wall was actually built by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Last time I checked, the Corps is a federal government agency.

Conservative House Majority Leader Eric Cantor made similarly bewildering comments after the Virginia earthquake earlier this week, declaring that government response to that event would only occur if corresponding cuts were made in other spending. These guys don’t seem to comprehend that the time for ideological rhetoric and threats of spending cuts is not when our citizens are being threatened by disasters beyond their control.

The real tragedy here is that the ones who almost always suffer the most in natural disasters are those who can least afford it: the working poor and the middle class. As costs have skyrocketed the last 20 years, many of those in these socioeconomic classes have had to give up or cut property insurance and health insurance. Without out those essential safety nets, invariably all of the burden to rebuild their personal lives would fall totally to them.

These disasters are an opportunity to bring into clear focus the real issue that lays before us. That issue is about the role of government. Many anti-government forces have successfully staked out territory that asserts that the “free market” cures all ills, which it doesn’t. They declare that the government can’t do anything right (except for winning 2 World Wars and going to the Moon in less than 10 years), and that it should be shrunk down to the size that it can be “drowned in the bathtub“. These same ideologues take hundreds of millions of dollars in donations from those they help, while voting against their own constituents.

We need to decide who we are as a society. Unlike the ideologues, I don’t believe that the government is some “Other” run by enemies of freedom as they so often like to declare; I do believe that the government is us, and that’s its destruction is the real threat to freedom. Because I believe that, I also believe that, as a society, we have an obligation to work for the common good. We need to provide not only for those who need help, like storm victims and the sick, but also to create an environment where everyone has the opportunity for a decent standard of living and the safety net of healthcare and Social Security.

We are the richest nation in the world (if we don’t move all the wealth to China) and can certainly meet these basic goals. But, we can only do that if we hold our leaders responsible. We have allowed our system of government to devolve into a continuous cycle of election and re-election, where our representatives are focused only on the money it takes to get them re-elected, and doing the bidding of those who give the money. We can hold them accountable, though, and it’s high time that we do that.

Reposted from The Huffington Post, where you can comment on the original.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

The report clearly places blame on Transocean for the explosions after the blowout due to poor training, corroded and poorly maintained equipment, and bypassed alarms and shut down devices.  The report also singled out the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the flag state of the Deepwater Horizon, for “abdicating its safety inspection responsibilities”.  The report was an indictment on the status quo of the offshore industry that allows drilling and service companies to unnecessarily risk lives and the environment through complacency, and tax avoidance and substandard safety requirements.

In its criticism of the Marshall Islands the joint committee said:

This investigation also revealed that the oversight and regulation of DEEPWATER HORIZON by its flag state, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), was ineffective in preventing this casualty. By delegating all of its inspection activities to “recognized organizations,” without itself conducting on board oversight surveys, the RMI effectively abdicated its vessel inspection responsibilities. In turn, this failure illustrates the need to strengthen the system of U.S. Coast Guard oversight of foreign-flagged MODUs, which as currently constructed is too limited to effectively ensure the safety of such vessels (a MODU is a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit - ed.).

As we’ve talked about before, most drilling companies “flag” or register their vessels in countries other than the US, called flags of convenience.  The companies all say that they do that to make it easier to move the vessels around the world more readily, but like incorporating their companies in foreign countries to avoid US taxes, they flag their vessels in countries that allow lax safety inspections, training, and crew requirements.  Such is the case with all of Transocean’s rigs and drillships (as well as most other companies’) where they register their vessels in countries like not only the Marshall Islands, but Panama, the Bahamas, and the Caymans, as well as other countries with lax regulations and third-party contract inspectors.  Some countries, like the Marshall Islands, actually allow the vessel owner to select (and pay) its own inspectors.

Other key findings for causes of the explosions were:

• Failure to use the diverter line: The rig had 2 ways to keep wellbore fluids from coming onto the floor; one was a diverter, the dumps the oil and gas overboard.  The other was the mud gas separator (MGS) that is better for keeping mud and oil out of the water, but which is limited in capacity.  The crew chose the MGS, which was overloaded dumping a gas cloud over the rig.
• Hazardous electrical equipment:  There was corroded and substandard electrical equipment in the engine room which likely caused the gas cloud to ignite.
• Gas detectors: were not set to automatically activate the emergency shut down systems, and worse, the bridge crew was not trained in what to do when the alarms activated.  Had the rig’s engines been immediately shut down, explosions could have been prevented or at least delayed.
• Bypassed systems: Gas detectors were either bypassed or inoperable when the rig exploded.  Testimony demonstrated that standard practice was to “inhibit” their function so that, even though they were reported to the control panel, no alarm would sound.  The crew also bypassed the automatic emergency shut down system.
• Design of Main and Emergency Power: The rig design was inadequate to prevent total shut down of power due to the proximity of the independent power and distribution systems.  In short, the explosions took out all the power.
• Crew blast protection:  As I noted in my book, Disater on the Horizon, the worst injuries (besides the drill floor and mud room deaths) occurred in the crew quarters.  There was no blast protection between the quarters and the drill floor, causing virtual destruction of that area of the rig while crew members were sleeping.
• Command and control of the rig:  A “clerical error” by the Marshall Islands allowed the Deepwater Horizon to by classified for a dual command structure.  This meant that when the rig was latched up and drilling, the Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) was in charge.  When the rig was underway, it was under command of the Master or captain.  This caused great confusion and delay during the emergency, with the Master actually asking the OIM for permission to activate the emergency disconnect system (EDS) to get off of the blowing out well.

Several other key mistakes and weaknesses caused the loss of the rig and additional injuries; one was a design flaw the powered the fire control system with only electrical power.  When the power was knocked out, so was the firefighting system.  Another was inadequate evacuation training,  resulting in 11 crew members being left behind on the rig in the confusion.  Additionally, the commission found that the rig likely sank due to damage during the explosions exacerbated by poor firefighting technique from the rescue ships that probably sank the rig by flooding it with water.

This first report from the Joint Investigation board is a stark view into the dangers of complacency, overconfidence, and a convoluted management structure resulting from years of success from cutting, both corners and cost.  It also highlights how minor failures can cascade into a catastrophe that is initiated from poor training and judgement.  It is clear that the US Government must change the basic rules of offshore drilling, from regulation of training and safety programs, maritime law and operating regulations, design and operations standards, and the financial incentives that are built into the system.  Inspection frequency and thoroughness must be improved and penalties for violations greatly increased.

Even as the BOEMRE continues to issue permits for operators to re-enter the deepwater for more drilling, few of these issues are currently being addressed, especially those surrounding operations in US waters by vessels flying flags of convenience.  Eliminating this particular loophole in maritime law is essential in assuring safer operations in the offshore, protecting American lives and jobs.

Read the original post on The Daily Hurricane.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

The public outcry was predictable; I’m amazed that no one at Transocean had thought through the ramifications of filing an SEC document that actually made the claim that they had the best safety year ever. Either their previous years had been even more disastrous, or some lawyer got involved trying to spin the facts of last year’s tragedy. I think it’s the latter, since their safety bonus last year was zero after they experienced four fatalities in 2009. I’m confused.

Anyway. Yesterday, the company belatedly apologized for the gaffe, announcing that the senior executives of the company will donate the safety portion of their bonuses to the Deepwater Horizon Memorial Fund totaling about $250,000. To be clear, they are donating only their safety portion of the bonus. They are keeping the rest of their compensation, totaling over $19 million. How generous.

Read the original post on The Daily Hurricane.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

A buoyancy can (seen at left) is a device attached to the top of a freestanding riser which is then anchored to the seafloor, keeping the riser in tension and in place.  The bottom end of the riser is attached to a subsea well or production facility, and flows oil and gas to the FPSO through a series of hoses and connectors.  FPSOs are the next step in deepwater production since these vessels not only process oil and gas, but can store the oil until offloaded to a tanker.  This technique eliminates the need for oil pipelines far our into the Gulf.

We discussed free standing risers last summer during the Macondo well blowout when several were installed, but never used, to contain flow from the well.  (Illustration from Recent Developments in Free Standing Riser Technology, Steve Hatton, John McGrail and David Walters from 2H Offshore Engineering Ltd. December, 2002)

You’re probably wondering why I’m writing about this seemingly obscure failure and subsequent work stoppage on the Petrobras FPSO facility, and why you should care.  Here’s why you should care:  freestanding risers are the backbone of the new subsea well containment systems that have been approved by the BOEMRE which are now required to get a deepwater drilling permit.  The failure of a key component in freestanding riser technology raises the question about the reliability of the free standing risers in the well containment systems that are staged for rapid deployment in the event of another subsea well blowout.  Having rushed the well containment systems into service so new drilling permits could be issued, one wonders whether they have been appropriately tested for durability and reliability.  Like subsea wellheads, they are installed below the surface and are not visible except through the lens of an ROV camera.  As the industry steps further and further out into deepwater, reliable riser systems will become key components in protecting the environment and making these projects economical.

We’ll be following this latest twist in the winding road back to the deepwater; it’s going to be critical to get free standing risers, just like capping stacks and subsea construction facilities, right this time, not only for the environment, but for the safety of those who work out in the deepwater.

Read the original post on The Daily Hurricane.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.

Even before testimony began, Cameron’s attorney David Jones stated:

“The report by Det Norske Veritas is based on a single hypothesis. That hypothesis is based not on testing but on computer models. The data that supports those computer models not included in the report. We requested the backup data on March 25.”

As he questioned Neil Thompson, as well as lead investigator, Greg Kenney, several weaknesses and mistakes in the DNV report were revealed including:

• DNV used only computer modeling, not actual testing of the blind shear ram to determine that drill pipe deflected to the side of the ram bore, jamming the ram block.

• The computer model placed the drill pipe in the wrong place in the ram bore.

• None of the pipe recovered from the BOP was actually bent or buckled.  The witnesses said that they assumed the pipe was “elastic” and return to its original shape after recovery.

• Even though testimony from Transocean employees on the rig stated that the upper annular was opened before the blowout, and it was open when they received it, the investigators assumed that the annular was closed. (This has always been a question for me, since subsea supervisor Chris Pleasant testified early on that the upper annular had been closed at the time of the blowout and that the crew actually held additional pressure on it to keep it from leaking.  Testimony from others that it was open during displacement of the riser conflicts, in my view, with this recollection.)

• Not all functions of the BOP were tested.

During the testimony of the two witnesses, it became clear that the investigation had been rushed and there was not time to examine all of the components of the device (probably because all involved parties and the government argued about the testing for 2 months while the BOP languished on the dock exposed to the weather).  Both BP and the Chemical Safety Board, a government investigative agency, had previously argued that more testing should have been done before the DNV report was issued.  Cameron has complained that they still have not received the backup data to the tests.

Again, key witnesses from Transocean have refused to testify before the board even after BOEMRE director Michael Bromwich pressured the company to compel them to do so.  Even though remaining silent is certainly their right, we won’t really know what happened until we get this key information.

I’m afraid that this testimony has the effect of the ol’ one step forward and two steps back.  Cameron has revealed critical mistakes in the DNV study, and at least one government agency, the Chemical Safety Board, has impllied that more study is needed before we will really know what happened.  Yet, with all these huge question marks, we are still going back to work in the deepwater.  Was it design? Poor maintenance? Merely a “black swan”?  These are critical questions that have not been answered and workers’ lives and the environment hang in the balance.

Just a note:  The raging apathy and silence from the media on this issue is deafening.  The hearings are not being live streamed by anyone, including C-Span, and the only news outlets covering what are probably the most important of these critical hearings is the Times-Picayune out of New Orleans and my pals over at the Houston Chronicle’s Fuel Fix.  All else is dead silence. I’m amazed.

Read the original article on The Huffington Post.

Bob Cavnar is the author of Disaster on the Horizon.